Enhanced rains were observed across Southern Africa during the past observation period.
1) Both delayed start and poor distribution of rainfall since the beginning of the October- December rainy season have led to moisture deficits and below-average ground conditions across northern Kenya and parts of southern Somalia. With the season already coming to an end, the potential for recovery is unlikely.
2) While the western parts and bimodal sector of northern Tanzania have received above-average rains, the south-central portions of the country have continued to experience poor rains since late November. This has already negatively impacted vegetation conditions in the region. The forecast enhanced rains during the next week may help to relieve dryness.
3) A prolonged delay of the onset of the rainy season and an erratic rainfall distribution during November have resulted in developing dryness across eastern Zambia, southern Malawi, and western Mozambique. Moderate to locally heavy rains are forecast to continue and are expected to improve conditions on the grounds.
4) Insufficient rains since mid-November has resulted in large rainfall deficits, likely negatively impacting cropping activities across southeastern Zimbabwe, southern Mozambique, and along coastal southwestern Madagascar. The forecast light rains during the next seven days could potentially worsen ground conditions.
